I am 72. I graduated college 50 years ago and am a quintessential baby boomer. I studied seniors housing and care as a real estate market and stock analyst for more than 20 years. I spent several years raising capital and advising companies in the seniors housing and care space and served on the board of Quality Care Properties, a health care REIT.
The holy grail of seniors housing and care throughout the last 20 to 25 years has been the arrival of baby boomers as senior housing residents. Despite a series of ups and downs driven by overbuilding, varying economic conditions, and a pandemic, the arrival of the baby boomers at the front door of seniors housing properties nationwide continues to be seen as spurring huge investment upside for the seniors housing and care industry.
The problem with this thinking is boomers have not moved in mass to seniors housing in their 60s or so far in their 70s. There is a rethink going on among some in seniors housing considering if boomers may abandon traditional seniors housing offerings altogether and, instead, seek out active adult communities, both large ones like the Villages and Del Webb and smaller scale active adult options. In these scenarios, boomers use home health care to avoid traditional independent, assisted living, memory care and CCRC properties altogether.
A funny thing happened this past week. Two baby boomer couples we have known for many years, who are our age or just a few years older, independently started touring CCRC communities around Baltimore, where I live. These same boomers, until very recently, could not picture themselves ever living in a CCRC. It is too soon to call this a trend, much less a wave of baby boomer demand, but it appears to me that after three years of pandemic, on and off masking, and much reduced social interaction more boomers are ready to consider communities that offer a wide range of education, entertainment and social activities, even if these properties are full of “old people”. Another couple we know is selling their condo near the water in a hip Baltimore neighborhood to rent in a 55 plus community in the suburbs with pickleball courts, educational and social programs.
I am curious if other senior housing industry professionals and other baby boomers are seeing evidence that boomer attitudes toward at least CCRCs are beginning to change and the holy grail of increased boomer demand for seniors housing may yet remake the industry. Please respond with your comments on this post.